Wednesday, March 16, 2011


Higher oil and food prices. Unemployment near 9 percent. Crises in the middle east and Japan. The U.S. Economy faces threats at home and abroad that have the potential to dull growth or stoke inflation. Or both.

When they meet the chairman and his federal colleagues will debate those risks. At the top of their agenda is whether to make any changes to the Fed's $600 billion treasury bond purchase program, expiring at the end of June.

The bond purchases are entended to help the economy by keeping long-term interest rates down., encouraging spending and driving up stock prices. Economist expect the Feds to agree to maintain the pace and size of the bond purchases.

But the risk for the economy will probably complicate efforts as the Fed chief and a majority of his colleagues argue that the economy still needs support from the bond purchases. A vocal minority on the Fed has raised concerns that the bond purchases, combining with higher prices for food, fuel and other commodities, will spread inflation through the economy.
They also worry that the purchase could feed speculative buying that could inflate new bubbles in stocks or other assets. The recent spike in oil prices makes the Fed's job that much more difficult. The Fed's hope is that rising prices and inflation will accompany sustained and robust economic growth. However, rising energy prices may lead to a situation of stagflation: higher inflation and lower growth.

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